Ke Colin Zheng

Market Recap: the very recent 2018 year-end rally (HSI/HSCEI) has been largely attributed to the global pension fund month/quarter-end rebalance. However, the low volume also reflected the weak market fundamental overall.

Flow: Pension fund rebalance flow could still have the last bit of the leg to go when market re-opens on Jan 2nd. However, focus should be on the re-open of SH-HK connect flow, which has been closed since 12/25/2018. Expect an outflow on mean-reversion.

Economic Data: A slew of economic updates will be released in the beginning of Jan. China Caijin PMI will most likely follow suite of the official one, confirming the slowdown of the China economy. Any significant downward deviate from surveyed will likely put pressure on market.

Summary: Indeed, the economic slowdown, the uncertainty on US-CN trade negotiation development, the lacking details of the new policies (tax-cut etc.), are major negatives that will linger around.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 1st, 2019 at 10:23 pm and is filed under Market. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.